More than a third of Singaporeans, or 35.9 per cent, had decided which political party to vote for even before this year’s general election was officially called, a post-election study by the Institute of Policy Studies (IPS) found.
Researchers from IPS at the National University of Singapore polled 2,872 people of voting age from May 8 to June 30.
The general election, which was held on May 3, saw the People’s Action Party (PAP) increase its share of votes to 65.57 per cent from 61.24 per cent in 2020.
PAP won 87 out of 97 seats, while the remaining 10, as well as two non-constituency MP seats, went to the Workers’ Party (WP).
The results of the survey, which were released on Tuesday (Sept 2), found that over one-third of respondents had already made up their mind on which party to back even before Parliament was dissolved on April 15.
More than a third, or 36.3 per cent, also said that they decided on their vote following the dissolution of Parliament and during the nine days of election hustings.
Only 18.1 per cent of voters made up their mind on which candidate or party to back on Polling Day.
IPS research fellow Melvin Tay said that the findings are “not surprising” given that elections in Singapore have historically been shaped by long-term impressions of parties and candidates, rather than short bursts of campaigning.
“Singaporeans are not merely last-minute voters swayed by campaign slogans… both the ruling party and opposition will need to keep this in mind as they look ahead to the next election.”
When asked for their reasons for their voting choice, more than half, or 56.7 per cent, said that it is due to the qualities of the candidates fielded in their constituency, which they feel make them suitable to be an MP.
However, just 14.5 per cent of respondents indicated that they did not want to lose a candidate who was an incumbent minister, or has the potential to be one.
Other reasons given include the ability to manage a town council well and the parties’ brand and reputation.
“These are not issues that can be convincingly addressed only during the nine-day campaign period,” said Dr Tay.
“Voters pay attention to how well MPs and parties engage with their communities between elections, how consistently they demonstrate competence in managing municipal issues, and whether they project a clear and credible message about what they stand for.
“These accumulated impressions mean that by the time Parliament is dissolved, many Singaporeans already feel confident about their choice.”
Dr Tay said that the survey results also showed PAP’s importance in showing tangible performance in governance and municipal management, which can reassure voters well before the elections.
On what lessons can opposition parties take, Dr Tay said: “While rallies and campaign events do matter, building credibility and trust cannot be left until Nomination Day.
“They need to project clear messages about their identity and demonstrate competence at the local and national level consistently, so that voters have reasons to decide in their favour early.”
Gap in credibility between PAP and WP narrowing
In another post-election survey released just before Singapore’s 15th Parliament opens on Friday (Sept 5), IPS found that the gap in credibility scores separating PAP and WP is narrowing.
After polling 2,056 Singaporeans, researchers found that respondents who agreed or strongly agreed that PAP was a credible party fell 17 per cent from 86 per cent in 2020 to 69 per cent in 2025.
WP’s approval also saw a dip, but at a smaller 14 per cent to 65 per cent from 79 per cent.
But it was not good news for the other opposition parties. Only 36 per cent of respondents agree that the Singapore Democratic Party was credible.
The approval rating for Progress Singapore Party, which lost its two NCMP seats after the election, was at 34 per cent, down from 60 per cent in 2020.
Fringe parties People’s Alliance for Reform and Red Dot United polled below 20 per cent.
PAP received higher credibility ratings from voters aged 65 and above, while WP was more popular among those aged 21 to 39.
Both parties attracted upper-middle-income voters, but the WP also had more support from middle-income earners.
The study also found that ethnic minorities were likely to agree that WP and other opposition parties were credible.
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chingshijie@asiaone.com
