The 2025 holiday season won’t be business as usual. Consumers are bracing for higher prices, fewer discounts and continued supply chain hiccups. Add that one in four plans to spend less overall, according to a Gartner report, and the challenge for marketers is clear: value and trust will be the deciding factors.
Consumers expect bad news at the cash register this season. Three out of four U.S. shoppers expect to pay more, according to Gartner’s report, “2025 Holiday Advertising and Consumer Trends Marketing Must Address,” and 40% expect fewer discounts — that’s about 25% more than in 2024.
Who do they blame for higher prices? In a word, everybody.
While Gartner found 69% say U.S. trade policies will make the holidays more expensive, that doesn’t mean consumers are letting businesses off the hook. A July 2025 Harris Poll found that 63% of Americans believe companies are taking advantage of the economic climate to boost profits. And who can blame them when they see stories like this from yesterday’s Wall Street Journal: “Job Cuts, Price Hikes Fueled This Season’s Bumper Earnings.”
Price transparency and brand authenticity
That means transparency around pricing, paired with strong value messaging, is essential. Do everything you can to make paying for purchases easier. Flexible payment options such as Buy Now, Pay Later continue to grow in popularity, particularly among millennials. That gives shoppers a sense of control over constrained budgets. Loyalty programs and personalized deals let consumers feel they are getting smarter and more exclusive value.
Shoppers won’t wait until Black Friday or even the start of November to buy gifts. Nearly two-thirds say they’ll start buying gifts before then, and more than half notice holiday ads as early as summer. Seasonal sales and October events like Prime Big Deal Days shape these habits. For marketers, waiting until fall to launch campaigns risks missing out. Starting in midsummer is becoming the smart move to capture momentum.
Dig deeper: Holiday shopping is starting earlier in the year
With the economy in flux, long-term campaign plans aren’t realistic. Marketers must monitor strategies and use real-time data and sentiment to guide decisions. Transparency is key: consumers want transparent pricing and consistent value messaging. Last year’s data tells the story — average discounts deepened by 13% late in the year, but first-time customer offers dropped 11%, according to Gartner. That gap highlights the need for sharper promotions and communication that builds confidence.
Where shoppers are heading
Multibrand retail sites and apps are now the go-to for holiday shopping. Consumers see them as more reliable for deals and inventory, and preference for brand-specific websites has dropped from 61% in 2023 to just 40% this year.
Younger shoppers, especially Gen Z and Millennials, are also wary of higher in-store prices and empty shelves. Flexibility is essential: services like curbside pickup, same-day delivery and extended return policies play a significant role in purchasing decisions. Gartner found that for nearly 70% of younger consumers, a longer return window makes them more likely to buy.
Dig deeper: AI is ringing in big holiday shopping changes
Here are the keys to success:
- Start earlier. Aim for early fall promotions to align with consumer behavior.
- Keep the focus on value. Make pricing transparent and offers competitive, reinforcing trust throughout the season.
- Invest where shoppers are. Direct spend toward multibrand retail platforms and retail media networks.
- Stay flexible. Use real-time data to adjust quickly as consumer sentiment shifts.
Bottom line
Winning this holiday season requires more than discounts and advertising volume. Holiday 2025 will reward brands that stay close to consumer behavior and adapt quickly. Shoppers are cautious but also looking for moments of joy and convenience. Marketers who move early, emphasize value, keep human empathy at the forefront, and meet customers where they’re shopping can still drive growth — even in an uncertain season.
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