Welcome to the final From the Politics Desk newsletter of the year, where we look ahead to the major storylines that will shape Washington and beyond in 2025. (Check out our recap of the dynamics that defined 2024 here.) We’ll be back on Friday, Jan. 3.

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5 big storylines that will shape 2025

By Sahil Kapur

With the new Congress getting underway on Jan. 3, and President-elect Donald Trump’s term starting Jan. 20, here are five big storylines to watch in the new year. 

1. How will Mike Johnson manage the tiny House majority?

For Mike Johnson, getting re-elected as House speaker on Jan. 3, if he manages it, may be the easy part. Next, he’ll have to navigate a series of difficult tasks with a wafer-thin House majority: another round of government funding on March 14, a debt limit deadline and a major party-line bill (perhaps two) to advance Trump’s agenda on immigration, border security, energy and tax cuts. It will be a daunting challenge, particularly for a speaker who leapt out of nowhere to take over the job just 14 months ago. Johnson, who won Trump’s endorsement to remain speaker on Monday, is about to face the most consequential stretch of his career. 

2. What will define the John Thune era?

For the first time in 18 years, Senate Republicans will have a new leader, with John Thune taking the reins from Mitch McConnell. Will Thune’s leadership style be similar or different? McConnell built his power by gaining a deep understanding of his conference and following its wishes. On what issues, if any, will Thune say no to Trump, and how? 

3. How will Democrats manage Trump 2.0? 

There are early indications that Democrats, burned by their failures in 2024, want to deal with Trump differently than they did in his first term. Fewer freakouts about his social media posts and cultural taunts; more focus on the economic issues that caused voters to swing against them. It’s notable that some Democrats’ harshest criticism of Trump after the election came when he said it would be “hard” to lower grocery prices. But whether Democrats will have the discipline to stay focused on kitchen-table issues remains to be seen.

4. Which stars will emerge in the new Congress?

The congressional class of 2025 will bring a new cast of characters for both parties. For Republicans on Capitol Hill, currency will equal proximity to Trump’s White House, the power to advance his agenda, and the ability to go viral on conservative media. For Democrats, the question is who will be the face of the second resistance? They spent the last days of 2024 portraying Trump as a puppet of billionaires like Elon Musk and demanding a debt limit hike to grease the wheels for giving Tump another tax cut bill.

5. Do Trump and his allies pursue retribution?

After running on an agenda of retribution against perceived political foes, Trump said this month in an interview with “Meet the Press” that he wants to turn the page. “I’m not looking to go back into the past. Retribution will be through success,” he said. But his actions tell a different story. He has already pursued legal action against media entities like ABC News and an Iowa pollster before taking office. On Capitol Hill, he’ll have allies in power places, with committee chairmanships and subpoena power to investigate. Will they use their power to settle scores for Trump?

That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at politicsnewsletter@nbcuni.com

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