As 2025 dawns, here is a look at some of the storylines that could shape the fate of tropical forests this year.

More reading: The year in tropical rainforests: 2024

How geopolitics could impact rainforests in 2025

In the aftermath of a politically turbulent 2024, the world’s tropical rainforests face heightened exposure to shifting geopolitical priorities. Decisions made in power centers like the United States and Brazil will likely ripple far beyond their borders, influencing conservation efforts and the forests’ critical role in mitigating climate change.

In the United States, the return of Donald Trump to the presidency heralds potential challenges for global environmental governance. His administration’s stance on climate issues during his previous term included withdrawal from the Paris Accord, significant reductions in support for international conservation, and deregulation of domestic extractive industries. A second term would likely see the U.S. stepping further back from multilateral climate agreements and biodiversity initiatives.

The consequences of such disengagement extend beyond funding cuts. Historically, the U.S. has wielded significant diplomatic influence to encourage environmental protections through trade agreements and foreign aid. The absence of this leadership may embolden other nations to relax their commitments, particularly in regions where environmental and economic interests often collide. Without pressure from Washington, the global race to extract resources could intensify, placing fragile ecosystems in jeopardy.

At the corporate level, the Trump administration’s policy signals could weaken private sector commitments to deforestation-free supply chains. Global Canopy’s Deforestation Action Tracker highlights that only 10% of institutional investors with climate pledges have robust deforestation policies. The erosion of government support for environmental initiatives may lead some firms to deprioritize sustainability goals, further undermining efforts to combat deforestation.

In Latin America, Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces his own set of challenges. While Lula’s administration has achieved a notable reduction in deforestation rates through reinstated protection programs, opposition at the state and congressional levels remains formidable. Many local and regional leaders in the Amazon basin, elected on platforms advocating for reduced environmental protections, are poised to obstruct Lula’s agenda. The resulting friction could stymie progress on initiatives aimed at curbing illegal logging and mining, encroachment into Indigenous territories, and agricultural expansion into rainforest areas.

Brazil’s domestic struggles are compounded by international economic pressures. Potential shifts in U.S. trade policy, including the imposition of tariffs or changes in commodity sourcing, may redirect agricultural demand toward Latin America. Increased demand for soy and beef—key drivers of deforestation—could incentivize further encroachment into tropical forests, undermining local conservation efforts.

Global environmental frameworks are also facing headwinds. The Science Based Targets initiative (SBTi), long considered a gold standard for corporate climate action, is grappling with internal disputes and public criticism. While still influential, its weakened reputation coincides with growing skepticism about the role of environmental policies in economic well being. Such doubts may discourage the adoption of ambitious climate targets by both corporations and nations.

As the international political landscape evolves, rainforests are likely to bear the brunt of shifting priorities. A U.S. administration that deprioritizes environmental issues could dampen global cooperation on climate and biodiversity goals, while local political dynamics in nations like Brazil add layers of complexity. The year ahead will test the resilience of existing conservation mechanisms and the willingness of global actors to safeguard the world’s rainforests in an era of competing priorities.

How macroeconomic trends and developments could affect rainforests in 2025

Global economic forces will play a pivotal role in determining the trajectory of tropical forests in 2025. From commodity prices to currency fluctuations, these dynamics will influence deforestation rates and conservation opportunities.

Commodity prices are expected to decline in 2025, according to projections from the World Bank and ING. Historically, high prices for agricultural and forestry commodities incentivize large-scale deforestation, fueling capital-intensive investments in industrial plantations, infrastructure, and export-oriented agriculture. Conversely, sustained price declines could dampen the expansion of agricultural frontiers, though the response will depend on local economic policies and inflation—a persistent issue in many forested nations. In the Brazilian Amazon, inflation has driven speculative land-clearing as a hedge against rising prices. Subsidized loans for agribusinesses further insulate agricultural expansion from broader monetary tightening.

Currency dynamics also affect deforestation-linked commodities such as soy, beef, and palm oil, which are priced in U.S. dollars. A strong dollar enhances the profitability of these exports, incentivizing land conversion. In Brazil, for instance, a weakening real has historically correlated with surging deforestation, as agricultural exports become more competitive.

Governments under fiscal strain may prioritize resource extraction to stabilize economies, often at the expense of environmental safeguards. Dollar-denominated debt pressures exacerbate this trend, driving increased logging and mining in forested regions. Whether forests are preserved or sacrificed will depend on how nations navigate these economic pressures.

The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation

The European Union’s Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), adopted in 2022 as a landmark policy to combat global deforestation, was in late December officially postponed by one year, providing producers and importers additional time to adapt to the regulation’s stringent requirements. While the delay alters the immediate timeline, the EUDR remains poised to reshape global supply chains and trade practices.

The regulation targets deforestation-linked commodities such as cattle, cocoa, coffee, palm oil, soy, and wood, requiring companies to ensure their goods are “deforestation-free.” Geographic data collection and mandatory due diligence are central to compliance, with penalties for violations ranging from fines to product bans. By demanding sustainable practices, the EUDR aims to reduce incentives for deforestation and drive investments in reforestation and sustainable land management.

However, the regulation faces challenges. Smallholder farmers in producer nations may struggle with compliance costs, and there is a risk of deforestation-linked goods being redirected to less-regulated markets. Verification—reliant on robust satellite monitoring—may prove uneven across regions, while trade tensions could arise from perceptions of protectionism.

As the European Union prepares for the revised rollout of its deforestation regulation, the coming year will test whether the EUDR can withstand pressures to weaken its provisions, delay implementation, or abandon it altogether. Its outcome—success or failure—could shape the trajectory of future global efforts to combat deforestation and align trade with sustainability goals.

COP30 and a spotlight on the Amazon

The 30th United Nations Climate Change Conference (COP30), set for November 2025 in Belém, Brazil, could mark a turning point in global climate action. Held in the Amazon basin for the first time, the summit highlights the region’s dual role as a global climate stabilizer and as ground zero for deforestation and biodiversity loss. Against a backdrop of unmet deforestation pledges and intensifying climate impacts, COP30’s outcomes may shape the trajectory of environmental efforts for years to come.

Hosting COP30 provides Brazil a chance to reclaim leadership in climate diplomacy under President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Since Lula’s return, the country has reduced deforestation by reinstating conservation programs and reforesting degraded lands. Belém’s selection as host underscores the Amazon’s centrality in global climate discussions and its profound vulnerabilities.

The summit will coincide with the first Global Stocktake under the Paris Agreement, assessing progress toward limiting warming to 1.5°C. Nations are expected to present updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs), with a critical focus on bridging the gap between current policies and required actions. Financing will dominate discussions, particularly through the “Baku to Belém Roadmap,” which aims to mobilize $1.3 trillion for mitigation and adaptation efforts in developing nations. Achieving these targets is vital in regions like the Amazon, where economic pressures drive deforestation.

Historical shortfalls in climate financing persist, with developed nations frequently missing financial commitments. Disputes over equitable burden-sharing remain a sticking point. Mechanisms like the Loss and Damage Fund, established at COP27, will test the resolve of wealthier nations to support vulnerable countries.

Geopolitical tensions and shifting economic priorities add further complexity. Major emitters such as the United States, China, and the European Union must reconcile their policies with demands for climate justice from developing nations. For countries like Brazil and Indonesia, balancing national economic interests with global conservation goals presents ongoing challenges. Trade pressures and competition for resources further complicate consensus-building efforts.

Deforestation targets will take center stage. While Brazil’s recent progress offers hope, the broader challenges remain significant. Tropical forests face unrelenting threats from agricultural expansion, infrastructure projects, and illegal resource extraction, exacerbated by weak enforcement. Discussions at COP30 must address these systemic drivers while promoting sustainable alternatives.

As the 2020s unfold as a decisive decade for climate action, COP30 offers an opportunity to recalibrate global efforts. Its outcomes will test the ability to translate pledges into tangible actions, with implications for the Amazon and the global climate agenda.

Drought in the Amazon

A severe drought that began in mid-2023 has underscored the Amazon’s vulnerability to climate change. Record-low river levels, soaring temperatures, and devastating wildfires have disrupted ecosystems and communities.

The drought’s impacts extend to biodiversity loss, with mass die-offs of aquatic species and disrupted fish migration patterns threatening local food systems. Human communities faced isolation as dry rivers stranded boats, while agricultural yields and hydropower generation suffered significant declines.

While El Niño events are often associated with Amazonian droughts, the 2023-2024 crisis was largely driven by climate change. Rising greenhouse gas concentrations have increased the likelihood of extreme droughts, weakening the forest’s resilience and carbon sequestration capacity. However, forecasts for a weak La Niña year in 2025 may limit the drought conditions typically linked to El Niño in the Amazon and Southeast Asia, providing a potential reprieve for these vulnerable regions.

The Amazon’s plight reflects a broader trend: tropical forests in Southeast Asia and the Congo Basin are also experiencing enduring drying, raising the specter of more frequent and severe wildfires.

Voluntary carbon market

The voluntary carbon market faces a critical juncture in 2025, as new methodologies, evolving regulations, and lingering skepticism shape its trajectory. The Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market (ICVCM) has approved three methodologies under the Core Carbon Principles (CCP), aiming to bolster trust in REDD+ credits. These methodologies, including the ART TREES standard and two Verra frameworks, are expected to issue significant volumes of CCP-labelled credits by early 2025, potentially infusing fresh confidence into a market that saw its value plummet by 61% in 2023.

REDD+ credits, focused on reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation, have drawn scrutiny over their carbon absorption claims. ICVCM’s assessment process—requiring jurisdictional baselines and strict social safeguards—seeks to address these integrity concerns.

The broader market outlook remains mixed. S&P Global reports that demand for carbon credits is likely to grow, though REDD+ prices may stagnate amid adoption challenges. Corporate interest in nature-based solutions is rising, spurred by initiatives like the Taskforce on Nature-related Financial Disclosures. However, traders cited by S&P Global expressed doubts about price increases, suggesting market dynamics will hinge on project quality rather than labels.

Progress on Article 6 of the Paris Agreement further complicates the landscape. Bilateral agreements under Article 6.2, such as Singapore’s partnership with Papua New Guinea, highlight the potential for international carbon trading. Yet the global framework under Article 6.4 is still maturing, with issues like corresponding adjustments unresolved.

As the market evolves, its success depends on maintaining high integrity while fostering trust among developers, buyers, and regulators. Whether REDD+ methodologies can overcome past controversies will be a defining question for 2025.

Conclusion

The challenges facing tropical forests in 2025 are multifaceted, shaped by geopolitical shifts, economic forces, regulatory frameworks, and climate impacts. As the year unfolds, the resilience of these ecosystems and the policies designed to protect them will be tested in an era of competing priorities.

Rainforest year-in-reviews:

2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | The 2010s | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 | 2009