HomeWorld NewsUS Presidential Election: Are safe states no longer safe? Iowa polling hints at potential upset
The seven swing states which account for 93 electoral college votes will potentially decide the elections. But what about the non-swing states? Could they spring a last minute surprise? Remember Kamala Harris has grabbed an unexpected lead in a poll in Iowa – a state that had backed Donald Trump in the last two elections. CNBC-TV18’s Sanjay Suri explains why the so called safe states may turn out to be a headache for both Trump and Harris.
By Sanjay Suri November 6, 2024, 12:49:12 AM IST (Published)
For much of the US presidential race, the national focus has been on a select few battlegrounds — the seven swing states where razor-thin margins could tip the election outcome in one direction or the other. These states, with their unpredictable voting patterns, have traditionally held the power to influence the path to the White House. Meanwhile, the remaining 43 states, plus Washington DC, are assumed to follow their expected political leanings, with analysts and pollsters confident in their outcomes.
However, recent shifts in polling data hint at a possible deviation from this established trend. While swing states have always been the hotbed of electoral uncertainty, there is now speculation around the so-called “safe” states as well.
In Texas, for example, Trump’s margin of victory narrowed significantly between 2016 and 2020, decreasing from 9% to just 5.5% in the 2020 election. Florida, meanwhile, saw Trump increase his lead, but by a modest 3.3%. Although these are relatively comfortable margins by most standards, they highlight the fluid nature of voter preferences, especially in an election marked by divisive national issues.
Analysts believe Republicans are likely to maintain control of both Texas and Florida, barring any unforeseen factors that could reshape voter perspectives. Yet in a surprising twist, recent polling data from Iowa, traditionally a deeply Republican state, reveals a potentially groundbreaking shift. According to J. Ann Selzer, President of Selzer & Company and a prominent public opinion pollster, current surveys show Kamala Harris leading Trump by three percentage points among Iowa voters. If Democrats were to claim Iowa, it would signify a seismic political shift in what has long been considered safe Republican territory.
This unexpected trend in Iowa may be influenced by key issues like abortion, which has been a particularly polarizing topic in the state. “Independent women have shifted,” said Selzer. “In earlier polls this year, they were voting in majorities for Donald Trump, and now they’re in majorities for Kamala Harris.” The abortion ban, which took effect in July, is speculated to be a significant factor behind this shift. Selzer notes, “A majority of Iowans think that all or most abortions should be legal.” As a result, Harris’s lead in Iowa has grown as attitudes toward abortion rights continue to shape voter opinions.
Despite this trend, most analysts still see the possibility of Iowa going Democrat as a long shot. But if these recent shifts are any indication, the 2024 election may not adhere to the traditional expectations that have long dictated campaigning strategies.
Should these shifts in non-swing states grow stronger or expand to other states, the current presidential race could witness unprecedented upsets.
