How This Crypto Hedge Fund Nailed the Trump Trade

• Donald Trump won the 2024 presidential election by a landslide.

• Whereas polls indicated the race was a tossup, crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital went full-in on the Republican candidate.

• The fund’s founder, Quinn Thompson, told CoinDesk how he came about his non-consensus view.

Former President and now President-elect Donald Trump’s landslide victory in the U.S. election shocked many, but not Quinn Thompson.

The result? It has been Lekker’s most successful trade since the fund was launched six months ago, Thompson told CoinDesk. He declined to give exact numbers. SOL has surged 13% in the last 24 hours and isn’t far from multi-year highs. AI-related bitcoin miners such as Core Scientific (CORZ), Hut 8 (HUT) and HIVE (HIVE) are up roughly 10% Wednesday, while BTC is soaring 8.7% and hit a new all-time high of $75,600.

“It’s difficult for investors to take public stances because politics is such a divisive topic. Just like how it’s taboo to talk about it with strangers,” Thompson said, before adding that herein lies the appeal of investing in a hedge fund that focuses on macroeconomics.

“People invest in macro-driven strategies because they are non-consensus by requirement,” Thompson wrote in a Wednesday email to his fund’s investors. “In order to get paid for being correct in macro, it requires going against the grain for long periods of time and developing conviction on ideas that at times strongly go against popular opinions.”

Trump won the Electoral College and popular vote, but that’s not all: Republicans now control the Senate and may well keep control of the House of Representatives — giving them the presidency and all of Congress. For Thompson, that’s a clear mandate for a socially liberal but fiscally conservative government — one that is bound to make life easier for the crypto sector after the impediments posed by current President Joe Biden as well as Trump during his first term. Trump reversed course on crypto this year, vowing to make the U.S. a crypto leader.

How did he do it?

There’s a few reasons why Thompson bet on Trump.

One of them was voter preference — the economy, immigration and foreign policy were at the top of the priority list for most voters in 2024, compared to the pandemic and racial inequality in 2020. Harris was vulnerable to these issues due to the ongoing wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, the bout of inflation that occurred early in Biden’s term and the administration’s policies regarding illegal migrants.

Thompson also predicted that Democrats would face turnout issues due to a lack of enthusiasm for Harris, who only entered the race in July after Biden dropped out, while Republicans would be optimistic about their candidate.

That’s not to say that everything went perfectly. Thompson said he failed to take profits on portions of the trade before the late October pullback, which saw bitcoin fall from $72,000 to $67,000 after Trump’s odds of winning dropped from 65% to 55% on Polymarket.

“Last minute outlier/wrong polls made people second-guess and become very fearful and uncertain,” he said.