Welcome to a special pre-holiday edition of From the Politics Desk, an evening newsletter that brings you the NBC News Politics team’s latest reporting and analysis from the White House, Capitol Hill and the campaign trail.
Today, we look back at the major storylines that defined the year that was. We’re off the rest of the week, but we’ll be back in your inbox next Monday with a preview of the dynamics that will shape 2025.
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5 storylines that defined 2024
By Mark Murray
With the year coming to a close, President-elect Donald Trump returning to the White House, President Joe Biden exiting and a new Congress starting next month, here’s a rundown of the top political storylines that shaped 2024 — in descending order.
5. Trump’s easy path to the GOP nomination. It’s important to remember that at the beginning of the 2024 cycle, it wasn’t a guarantee Trump would be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee.
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis was running close to Trump in early polls; Sen. Tim Scott, R-S.C., had some early momentum and money; and former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley had the makings of a formidable challenger.
But in the end, Trump won every GOP nominating contest — with the exceptions of Vermont and Washington, D.C.
Even after his 2020 defeat, the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol, and the party’s disappointing performance in the 2022 midterms, Trump’s stranglehold over the GOP was evident in the pre-primary polls showing half of Republican voters or more wanted him to continue as the party’s leader.
4. Trump’s legal challenges that fizzled away. 2024 featured the split screen of activity on the campaign trail and drama in the courtroom.
Trump faced four separate indictments and was ultimately convicted on 34 felony counts in the hush money case. They were all supposed to represent one of the defining moments of the election.
But politically, they largely only served to help Trump further rally the GOP base around him. And many of the cases fizzled away after Trump was able to delay proceedings and sentencing, and after he won in November.
3. The presidential debate that changed everything. Heading into June’s debate — the earliest general-election faceoff in memory — many voters already had concerns about President Joe Biden’s age and fitness to serve another term.
And the debate only confirmed those worries, as he frequently stumbled over his words and came across as feeble onstage.
The performance immediately set off Democratic alarm bells. But Biden vowed he would remain in the race, even as calls from within his own party for him to step aside grew louder. He dropped out a month later.
2. Harris became more popular than Biden (but not significantly more popular than Trump). Immediately after Biden’s exit, the Democratic Party coalesced around Vice President Kamala Harris, who enjoyed a political honeymoon.
In the final NBC News poll before the election, Harris had a favorable rating of 43% positive, 50% negative (-7 net rating) — significantly higher than Biden’s score of 35% positive, 52% negative (-17).
But Harris’ numbers weren’t far removed from Trump’s: 42% positive, 51% negative (-9).
1. Concerns about inflation and the economy doomed the Democrats. In the end, it was the economy, stupid.
Despite strong job creation and inflation cooling to its lowest level since 2021, most American voters weren’t happy with the economy or Biden’s handling of it.
Two-thirds said their family’s income was falling behind the cost of living, and only 25% of voters said Biden’s policies were helping their family (compared with 44% who said that about Trump when he was president), according to NBC News polling.
And per the NBC News Exit Poll, 32% of voters said the economy was their most important issue — and Trump bested Harris among those voters 81% to 18%.
Why 2024 was the ultimate ‘what if’ election
By Chuck Todd
There are so many holiday traditions in Washington — congressional negotiations that go too long, crowded parties, inhumane traffic around the National Christmas Tree lighting.
But one holiday tradition that we look forward to is our annual “What If” series of alternative history episodes on the Chuck ToddCast. Every year, we ask our listeners to share their favorite ideas for possible twists and turns in history that could have changed everything about politics.
This year, our listeners asked about all the other ways the 2024 election might have played out. They also asked questions about Donald Trump (What if Trump bought the Buffalo Bills in 2014?), American history (What if George Washington ran for a third term?), and so many more. We had questions about Jeb Bush and Ross Perot, about the Gulf War and the Cold War … someone even shared a smart question about Democrats’ disastrous 2020 Iowa caucuses.
Asking these questions are about more than just scratching an itch, but about investigating how the hard certainties of our world could have been fundamentally different, and asking what that would have said about our country, our history and ourselves.
We’re kicking off this year’s series with one of my favorite alternative history connoisseurs, Politico’s Jonathan Martin, to talk about what other twists and turns we might have seen in the 2024 election. You might think that an election year like 2024, with so many unexpected developments, would satisfy anyone’s curiosity for asking “What if?” — but in a year that could have been its own alternative history, the possibilities are endless.
That’s all from the Politics Desk for now. If you have feedback — likes or dislikes — email us at [email protected]
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