US Presidential Election: How Trump’s return could alter America’s role in global affairs

As Donald Trump secures his victory in the 2024 US Presidential Election, experts reflect on the broader implications of his return to the White House. The former president is poised to make history as the first US leader in 132 years to reclaim the presidency after a previous defeat.

Trump’s sweep in all seven crucial swing states marks a shift in the American political landscape, surprising few in hindsight but raising significant questions about future foreign policies—especially with regard to India and global relations, particularly with Russia.

Richard Rossow, Senior Adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), noted that while the outcome wasn’t entirely unexpected, the scope of Trump’s win was notable. “Many of the swing states were tilting back towards Trump, and the confidence on the Republican side quietly grew,” said Rossow. While the victory margins were narrow, Trump’s consistent support from critical states like Michigan signalled the inevitable turn in favour of the former president. With his return, many expect a shift in how the US engages with both its allies and adversaries on the world stage.

One key point of discussion is Trump’s relationship with Russia, particularly following statements made by the Russian government after the election results. Russia expressed that Trump’s victory reflected America’s disillusionment with the Biden administration, underscoring its critique of US democracy.

Rossow explained that from a Russian perspective, Trump’s potential return might offer a chance for reduced pressure, especially in terms of US support for Ukraine. “If this means that the US resolve to support Ukraine is reduced, it certainly helps Russia,” Rossow remarked. Given Trump’s past remarks on cultivating a ‘healthy relationship’ with Russian President Vladimir Putin, his return could signal shifts in the global power dynamics that may benefit Russian interests.

Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, offered insights into the potential impacts of Trump’s victory on US-India relations. Though Trump’s unpredictability remains a constant, Kugelman pointed out that the Modi government and India’s leadership are no strangers to the former president’s policies.

He highlighted that the US-India partnership grew steadily during Trump’s previous tenure despite past tensions, particularly concerning trade.

Kugelman speculated that Trump’s return could see renewed focus on the US-India commercial relationship, especially about tariffs. While Trump had previously criticised India’s tariff policies, his administration witnessed notable growth in trade relations with India, particularly in goods. According to Kugelman, the key question is how Trump will approach these issues moving forward. “It will be interesting to see how he navigates the trade front. While trade ties grew significantly during his first term, the relationship could face new challenges under his second administration,” he said.

Kugelman emphasised that despite the challenges, the foundation of the US-India relationship is unlikely to falter dramatically. The mutual interest in strengthening this partnership will likely persist, even as the specifics of Trump’s policy toward India take shape.

Watch the accompanying video for the entire discussion.