Justin Trudeau is rumored to be considering an exit as leader of the Liberal Party. According to reports, this consideration was prompted by the recent resignation of Chrystia Freeland as finance minister.
Freeland Quit as Finance Minister
The Canadian PM reportedly told Freeland that he doesn’t want her as a finance minister, offering her another position instead. However, this led to her resignation, which was officially announced on X.
Freeland said that she felt that resignation was the “only honest and viable path for her.” She emphasized that she no longer enjoys Trudeau’s confidence and added that the two have been at odds about the best path forward for the country.
https://publish.twitter.com/?url=https://twitter.com/cafreeland/status/1868659332285702167#
The recent elections in the US have shaken Canadian politics up, causing fears about Donald Trump’s upcoming term. Trump, as she mentioned on X, has been eyeing colossal tariffs for Canada and Mexico, if they don’t do more about the illegal cross-border drug trade.
Dominic LeBlanc became Canada’s new finance minister shortly after Freeland’s exit.
Betting on the Canadian Elections Is Now Available
Freeland’s exit prompted calls for Trudeau’s resignation as he rapidly lost confidence among opponents and fellow Liberals alike. Current projections believe that the Liberal Party will lose the next election to the Conservatives, which could potentially win as many as 233 seats.
Polls suggested that if an election were to take place right away, the Liberals, which are currently in power, would end up in fourth place. This is in part Trudeau’s fault as the PM currently has a measly 28% approval rating.
Sportsbooks and political betting platforms are also expecting the Conservatives to win. Casino.org reported that as of yesterday, FanDuel had the Conservatives at -1000 and the Liberals at +1900. The NDP took the third spot at +6000, with “any other party” at +10000.
BetVictor, on the other hand, similarly had the Conservatives at -1000. The Liberals were at +500, with the NDP at +3500. Last but not least, BetMGM had the conservatives at -2000, followed by the liberals at +800 and the NDP at +2500.
Polymarket Has Launched Canadian Politics Markets
In the meantime, the prediction platform Polymarket offers a range of markets in Canadian politics. As of the time of this writing, its users seem confident that Trudeau will not resign after all. The “Trudeau resigns by Friday” market implies an 8% chance for the PM’s exit by the end of the week.
The Trudeau out in 2024 market also seems confident that the PM will not vacate his post this year, placing the likelihood of this major change at 12%.
In the meantime, Polymarket bettors agree that a federal election in 2024 is unlikely (1%). The platform’s users, meanwhile, believe that there is a 46% for an election to take place before April.
